So it's come to this. It's Wednesday the 22nd of June and in less than 24 hour, the polls open on the most important vote in British history. Tomorrow the country votes to decide if we stay part of the EU or not. A vote to leave will cause issues for several years, from Expats abroad to the rise of the right wing in Germany, Austria and other countries. Markets will stumble, and with uncertainty, there's sure to be a few wobbles on the UK stock market. For us, it could spell the end of our dream.
The biggest issue however, isn't the possibility of us leaving the EU. No, our main worry should be how a country that's been so decided during this referendum, will put itself back together after the vote has passed. The level of hate between the camps has been growing for the last three months, fed by a diet of tabloid outrage and politicians keen to press their beliefs on the public at large. Lies, fear and exaggeration have been the hallmarks of a dirty campaign from both sides.
Remains of the Day.
The remain side should have had the easier job. Tell the people the truth. Explain it clearly and make a positive case to stay. Instead We've had reports that have been blown out of proportion. 'You'll be £4000+ a year worse off if we leave.' comes the cry. 'GDP with fall, we'll hit a recession' and more have befallen the remain camps calls to arms. They've called for everything it seems including a plague of locusts. Well almost. The spectre of all out war in Europe even raised its ugly head. No, Instead of laying out the facts in an ordered way, Like only 13% or so of EU laws actually affect the UK, instead of the much reported 60%. But no. Its become a case of Chicken little screaming the sky is falling. That said, in all that exaggeration, there's a grain of truth. From the IMF to the IFS, the experts all agree that we'd be worse off if we left, its just the figures that are the issue.
BeLEAVE what you want.
If the remain campaign can be excused of exaggerating, the Leave campaign can be accused of living in their own little fantasy world. In this magical world, experts are to be dismissed as no nothings fools all in the pay of the EU. 'I think the UK public has had enough of experts' Leave Co chair Michael Gove has said. Ignoring the advice of the worlds economists is par for the course. Economics forecasting is mere voodoo, except when its their own economics professors of course. Then, the advice from but a handful of dissenting experts is to be taken seriously. Professor Minford, Vote Leave's tame expert has his own model of the economy post Brexit that shows how we'll be better off with free trade deals for all. He also says that our manufacturing sector would be all but gone and the economy would be run on the Service and high tech industries. So much for the steel industry then. Besides, who's reading that far into his report?
The economy was going to be a hards sell for the Leave guys. Just last week, we had the official unemployment figures. Unemployment is currently at its lowest level since 2005. Our economy is growing too! In fact Leave are constantly telling us how great our economy is, that's why we have so many EU immigrants arriving here. Bear in mind however, that the rallying call against the EU is that its over bureaucratic, With so many rules and regulations that we're drowning under the weight. obviously their missing the obvious fact that if we are the best economy in the EU, then we must be doing ok within those pesky rules. Oh and we're one of the most regulation free countries in Europe as well. hmmmmm.
Project Fear.
The favourite cry from those on the leave side is that the Remainers are pushing 'Project Fear', a term first appearing in in the Scottish referendum where the Remain side pushed the negative aspects of breaking up a 300 year union. They may have a point. As I pointed out earlier, everything including a plague of locusts and famine has seemingly been claimed to happen if we leave. And if Vote Leave had left it at that, I'd have said 'I disagree, but ok.' But this constant cry of 'Project fear' is set against the Leave sides own campaign of Fear and Hate. Repeatedly they claim Turkey will join the EU and 77 million (Yes 77 million!) Turks will make a bee line for our shores. The Fact that Turkey has been trying to join the EU for over 50 years and is no closer to for filling the criteria to join. If anything, they're moving in the opposite direction, from press freedoms and a president who seems more intent on suing German comics that 'insult' him. Plus, to join the EU, all 28 countries have to agree. We would probably Veto them, and I'm damn well sure Cyprus will Veto them as well. But in Vote Leave land, this matters not. 'It's government policy to bring Turkey into the EU.' They say. In the past is has been, but the changing nature of Turkey's relationship with the EU will affect that. Leave have an answer though. 'If the EU wants to do something, they will.' So there we are then. Why even bother voting, we'll just wait for the tanks to roll in shall we.
Immigration has been at the forefront of the Leave campaign, and the remain camp has found this to be the hardest thing to fight against. 'our public services are under pressure because of immigrants!' is the central claim. In a country where migrants make up less than 10% of the population, It's hard to imagine that the whole lot are causing issues. They're not. EU immigrants pay more into the UK in tax than they take out, and damn it, if they've paid in, then they're entitled to use it. The reason that public services are at breaking point is simple. In 2010, the government of the day began cutting public services in order to reduce the countries deficit. That cutting has continued with the current government. The Prime Minister, David Cameron is the same man who began the cuts in 2010 and is currently leading the Remain camp. So he can't stand there and say its not immigrants, its me. I did it. Likewise, the Leave camp is lead predominantly by conservative politicians who were in both governments as well. They can't say it was them as it wouldn't fit in with the narrative that the EU free movement is to blame. Plus these are the guys who are hoping to gain control of the current government if we do vote leave. No one wants to say 'We've screwed you over before, and now we have more control (Control is a leave buzzword) we're going to do more.'
Speaking of Control, Leave have made plenty of claims regarding the money we send to Brussels. They say, repeatedly, that being a member of the EU costs us £350 million pounds a week. If we didn't have to send that amount to Europe, would could invest it in the NHS for example. The claim is false though. Out of that £350 million, over half stays in the UK as part of the EU rebate. The figure we send to the EU is around £160 million. Its true that the rest of the money that stays in the UK is spent on things the EU says, but is that a bad thing. For example, there's the Common Agricultural policy that keeps farms running in impoverished area's. Wales and Cornwall along with other areas get over £1 billion in whats called 'objective 1' funding. This is funding to help regenerate some of the poorest area's of the UK. Just a mile from my keyboard right now, there's road improvements being made using Objective 1 funding. Train lines, colleges and even apprenticeships have all gained from the European funding. Leave claim that leaving the EU, they'd keep that funding in place, that Farm subsidies would be safe, that they'd even cut the VAT on gas and electricity bills, and tampons! plus lots of other stuff. They guarantee it in fact. The thing is, they're not the government, so any spending pledges are worthless. Even if they Win, replace Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne and somehow gain government power, the budget still has to find money from somewhere. The £8 billion annual bill we're saving by not being in the EU has to go a long way. And in government terms £8 billion is chicken feed. We spend £728 billion on defence alone. Most telling of course is this. That £8 billion represents just 1% or there about of GDP. Any recession after a Brexit (Which all the experts agree will happen, though what do they know, right?) would see GDP shrink, wiping out that £8 billion saving. Boris Johnson assures us it isn't going to happen though, and if it does, he'll publicly apologise on TV. Thank Boris, I'm sure the unemployed people who believed in you will appreciate that as they're benefits get cut to try and make savings.
Unanswered Questions.
I've tried to stay neutral in writing this piece, as I do with any review I write, but seeing the reality of the situation written down on the screen stirs my anger. We sit on the edge of a cliff, where the options are to either stay on the edge, or jump. The fact we're even thinking of jumping is a unbelievable, and it feels like we've got to this position by being promised the world on a stick. It's that same stick that poking us in the back as we teeter ever closer to the edge. There no answer to a range of questions heading into tomorrows vote, and sadly, there seems to a hell of a lot of people not asking, shouting out 'I want my country back' instead. Freedom from Europe will come at a price, and I'm damn well sure that the Leave campaign guys won't be the ones paying it!
