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Thursday 3 March 2016

Uncertain certainty.

Does anyone remember 'Spy vs Spy'? I do. It was a silly game made for the seamaster system way back in the 90's. Based on the comic strip of the same name, spy vs spy was a game where the black spy would set up traps for the White spy to fall victim to. Of course whilst the black spy was busy, the White spy was also setting traps for his counterpart. The two spent hours trapping each other. 

 Spy verses Spy on the old Sega Master system 

I mention spy vs spy because the battle for the upcoming European referendum feels a bit like the White spy and the black spy setting traps for each other. The referendum campaign has barely begun and yet each side is laying out the case for in or out. It's still four months until the vote on the 23rd of June, but already, the campaign is covering every media outlet. 

It's no surprise that the referendum conjures up strong feelings amongst some, but what's really interesting is the tone. Fear. The 'No' campaign have already set out their stall, dubbing the 'in' campaigns strategy as 'Project Fear'. They claim the prime minister, head of the 'in' campaign, is using fear of the uncertainty to scare the British public into voting 'remain'. They have a point, but not the high ground. Just this week, the no campaign unleashed an ex army general has told one newspaper that the UK 'would be safer' outside the EU. This hot on the heels of out campaigner Ian Duncan Smith's claim just 24 hours after the announcement of the referendum date that being in the EU 'makes us more suspetable to a Paris style Attack'. So clearly the No campaign are happy to feed on people's fears, as long as it's the right fears. 

From my point of view, well it's all very sad and depressing, not least because a No vote would scupper our plans to move. We could find ourselves living in Vienna only to be told to apply for a visa due to change in the UK's relationship with Europe. Without that 'right to free movement', two million Brits living and working abroad could find themselves on the wrong side of the wall. More annoyingly, I've just succumbed to the same fear the campaigns are using. 

It's incredibly disappointing that no positives are being used to aid the 'in' campaign. It seems that as far as the British public is concerned, the last forty years of Eu membership have just been a living nightmare. Perhaps it has, though living in Wales it's hard to say if the EU has had any effect on us at all. Perhaps that's the issue. Today it was revealed that 150 local bank branches have been shut in Wales during the last 5 years. That's not the EU's fault. Yet you ask people in the effected valley's what's they're biggest issues, and most will blame Europe and immigration. 

The funny thing is that Wales recieves £1.6 billion from the EU for economic growth. A lot of Lynda's work with the after school clubs has been funded via the EU money, our niece has an apprenticeship that's completely funded by the EU. The people of Ebbw Vale have also benefited from the EU with funding for the reopening of the Ebbw Vale train line. But the perception is that the EU gives us nothing but trouble. 

A great example is the fuss over providing child benefit to families not living in the UK. The basic complaint seem legitimate. Say a Romanian man comes over to work in the UK under the 'Free movement' rules. He's entitled to of course. Now because he has a family back in Romania, he claim child benefit for the three kids there, sending that money home, which is a veritable windfall compared to a standard wage. On the surface it's annoying. The U.K. Is paying for children not in country. So in an effort to solve the problem, the U.K. Government wanted to change the law to stop migrants being able to claim. No no, says the EU, that's illegal. Cue the condemnation of Europe for interference.
Here's the thing though, Germany doesn't allow for child benefit to be paid to non resident children. Nor do a few others. So why is the EU meddling with the U.K? What's actually the issue has to do with the rules on benefits for all EU migrants. An EU citizen cannot be treated differently in any country in Europe's own citizens. So if you live in Germany, the Germans don't restrict their benefits to a Romanian, just because their Romanian. Getting back to the UK, to solve the problem, all we have to do is to change the rule that would stop child benefit being paid to children of British citizens who aren't in country. Do that and the EU has no issue. So why hasn't it been changed? Perhaps it's better to blame the EU rather than fix the issue. Really why are we annoyed if a Romanian does something elite get child benefit paid to a child not in country, but not annoyed if a British citizen does the same thing? Both are stupid ideas and the issue is quick to fix. 

And that brings us back to our spies above. Both spies are fighting each other, yet no one has stopped to see what the fight is about. Instead, the next four months will be all about fear and uncertainty. The phrase scaremongering is going to be a big part of the run up to June, and it appears to be working.